预报：董林 签发：王海平 2024 年 10 月 02 日 10 时
台风“山陀儿”向台湾岛西南部沿海靠近
一、中央气象台10月2日10时继续发布台风橙色预警
今年第18号台风“山陀儿”（强台风级）的中心今天上午8点钟位于台湾省高雄市西南方向约125公里的南海东北部海面，就是北纬21.6度、东经119.3度，中心附近最大风力有15级（48米/秒），中心最低气压为945百帕，七级风圈半径300-340公里，十级风圈半径140-180公里，十二级风圈半径40-60公里。
预计，“山陀儿”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向东北方向缓慢移动，强度缓慢减弱，并将于10月2日夜间至3日上午在台湾岛西南部沿海登陆（台风级或强台风级，12-14级，35-42米/秒），登陆后强度快速减弱。
大风预报：10月2日14时至3日14时，浙江沿海、福建沿海、广东沿海、黄海南部、东海北部、南海北部、台湾以东洋面、东沙群岛将有6-8级、阵风9-10级的大风；台湾岛沿海、东海南部、台湾海峡、巴士海峡、澎湖列岛、南海东北部偏东海域将有9-12级、阵风13-14级的大风，台风中心经过的附近海域或地区风力可达13-14级，阵风15-17级。
降水预报：10月2日14时至3日14时，福建东北部沿海、台湾岛有大到暴雨，其中，台湾岛东部和南部有大暴雨，台湾岛南部局地有特大暴雨（250-520毫米）。
海洋天气公报
预报：宋佳凝 签发：黄奕武 2024 年 10 月 02 日 06 时
我国近海海域将有8级以上大风
一、近海海域天气实况
1日14时至2日02时，渤海、黄海大部海域、东海大部海域、台湾海峡、南海北部和中东部海域、巴士海峡、北部湾出现了7~8级、阵风9~10级的大风，其中东海大部海域、南海东北部海域、台湾海峡出现了9~11级、阵风11~12级的大风。
二、近海海域重点天气预报
1、我国近海海域将有8级以上大风
预计，10月2日白天至4日夜间，渤海、黄海中部和南部海域、东海北部海域、南海西部海域、北部湾将有6~8级、阵风9~10级的大风，其中东海北部的部分海域风力可达9级、阵风10~11级；受台风“山陀儿”影响，东海南部海域、台湾海峡、台湾以东洋面、巴士海峡、南海东北部偏东海域将有9~10级、阵风11级的大风，其中部分海域风力可达11~12级、阵风13级，台风中心经过的附近海域或地区风力有13~14级、阵风15级。有关台风“山陀儿”的详细信息，请参见中央气象台最新一期《台风预警》。中央气象台10月2日06时继续发布《大风黄色预警》。
三、未来三天具体预报
海事天气公报
ZCZC
WWCI50 BABJ 020000
2:2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN =
MESSAGE FOR METAREA XI (CHINA) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 0330UTC OCT.02 2024 =
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS =
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000UTC OCT.02 =
FCST VALID 0000UTC OCT.03 =
WARNNING=
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNNING=
STY KRATHON 2418(2418) 945HPA AT 21.6N 119.3E
MVG NE 7KMH AND MAX WINDS 48M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 12M)
AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
300KM NE
340KM SE
320KM SW
300KM NW
AND RADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS
180KM NE
180KM SE
140KM SW
160KM NW
AND RADIUS OF 64KTS WINDS
60KM NE
60KM SE
40KM SW
40KM NW
AND FCST FOR 020600UTC AT 21.8N 119.5E 950HPA
AND MAX WINDS 45M/S NEAR CENTER
AND FCST FOR 021200UTC AT 22.1N 119.8E 955HPA
AND MAX WINDS 42M/S NEAR CENTER
AND FCST FOR 021800UTC AT 22.6N 120.1E 955HPA
AND MAX WINDS 42M/S NEAR CENTER
AND FCST FOR 030000UTC AT 23.1N 120.3E 965HPA
AND MAX WINDS 38M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
NLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
2.0M OVER SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA AND
NORTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA AND BEIBU
GULF AND SOUTHWESTERN PART OF JAPAN SEA=
NLY WINDS FROM 14 TO 18M/S GUSTS 22M/S SEAS UP TO
3.5M OVER EAST CHINA SEA AND TAIWAN STRAIT=
SW/SLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP
TO 2.0M OVER SEA EAST OF TAIWAN AND EAST CENTRAL
SOUTH CHINA SEA=
SLY WINDS FROM 22 TO 26M/S GUSTS 30M/S SEAS UP TO
5.0M OVER BASHI CHANNEL=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 18 TO 22M/S GUSTS 26M/S SEAS
UP TO 4.0M OVER NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA
SEA=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER
NORTHWESTERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND ANDAMAN
SEA AND MALACCA STRAIT AND SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE
AND SEA SOUTH OF SUMATERA AND SUNDA STRAIT AND
LAUT JAWA AND MAKASSAR STRAIT AND LAUT MALUKU AND
LAUT BANDA=
FCST=
CENTRAL PART OF YELLOW SEA
N WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S SEA STATE
MODERATE OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA
N WINDS 12 TO 16M/S GUSTS 16 TO 20M/S VEER NE
WINDS 12 TO 16M/S GUSTS 16 TO 20M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH TO MODERATE OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
N WINDS 16 TO 20M/S GUSTS 20 TO 24M/S VEER NE
WINDS 16 TO 20M/S GUSTS 20 TO 24M/S SEA STATE VERY
ROUGH TO ROUGH MODERATE RAIN VIS MODERATE=
SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
NE WINDS 16 TO 20M/S GUSTS 20 TO 24M/S SEA STATE
VERY ROUGH MODERATE RAIN BECMG HEAVY RAIN VIS
MODERATE=
TAIWAN STRAIT
N WINDS 36 TO 40M/S GUSTS 40 TO 45M/S SEA STATE
HIGH OVERCAST BECMG MODERATE RAIN VIS GOOD TO
MODERATE=
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
S WINDS 16 TO 20M/S GUSTS 20 TO 24M/S SEA STATE
VERY ROUGH MODERATE RAIN BECMG HEAVY RAIN VIS
MODERATE=
BASHI CHANNEL
S WINDS 20 TO 24M/S GUSTS 24 TO 28M/S VEER SW
WINDS 20 TO 24M/S GUSTS 24 TO 28M/S SEA STATE HIGH
TO VERY ROUGH HEAVY RAIN BECMG MODERATE RAIN VIS
MODERATE=
BEIBU GULF
N WINDS 12 TO 16M/S GUSTS 16 TO 20M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S SEA STATE ROUGH TO
MODERATE CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
NORTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
N WINDS 12 TO 16M/S GUSTS 16 TO 20M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S SEA STATE ROUGH CLOUDY VIS
GOOD=
NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
NW WINDS 32 TO 36M/S GUSTS 36 TO 40M/S DECR 24 TO
28M/S GUSTS 28 TO 32M/S SEA STATE HIGH RAINSTORM
BECMG OVERCAST VIS POOR TO GOOD=
WEST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
N WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S SEA STATE
MODERATE CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
EAST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S VEER N
WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 04 TO 06M/S GUSTS 06 TO 08M/S VEER NW
WINDS 04 TO 06M/S GUSTS 06 TO 08M/S SEA STATE
MODERATE CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
NORTHEASTERN PART OF JAPAN SEA
NW WINDS VEER NE 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S SEA
STATE MODERATE OVERCAST BECMG CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF JAPAN SEA
NE WINDS 12 TO 16M/S GUSTS 16 TO 20M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH MODERATE RAIN VIS MODERATE=
KOREA STRAIT
NE WINDS 12 TO 16M/S GUSTS 16 TO 20M/S INCR 16 TO
20M/S GUSTS 20 TO 24M/S SEA STATE ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH MODERATE RAIN BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS MODERATE
TO GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S VEER SW
WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S SEA STATE
MODERATE OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH MODERATE RAIN BECMG OVERCAST VIS MODERATE TO
GOOD=
SEA WEST OF BONIN ISLANDS
E WINDS 06 TO 08M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE
MODERATE OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA NORTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S DECR 06 TO
08M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MODERATE
OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA WEST OF NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
E WINDS 06 TO 08M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE
MODERATE OVERCAST BECMG MODERATE RAIN VIS GOOD TO
MODERATE=
SEA SOUTH OF JAWA
SE WINDS 06 TO 08M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE
MODERATE CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA SOUTH OF SUMATERA
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S SEA STATE
ROUGH CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
NNNN
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